Hall–Chow weight-change scenario
A simplified model with average parameters illustrates weight change after a sustained reduction in baseline energy intake, with unchanged activity.
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Calculation
Result
- Weight in the simplified model (16 weeks)
- 89.6 kg
- Modelled weight change
- 5.4 kg
- Linear comparison: 7700 kcal/kg
- 7.3 kg
- Difference between models
- 1.9 kg
- Week 13
- 90.5 kg
- Week 14
- 90.2 kg
- Week 15
- 89.9 kg
- Week 16
- 89.6 kg
Uses published average parameters; individual outcomes can differ substantially.
Uses published average parameters; individual outcomes can differ substantially.
The linear comparison ignores falling energy expenditure and is not a second forecast.
The linear comparison ignores falling energy expenditure and is not a second forecast.
This is the linearized two-parameter Hall–Chow model (2011), not the full individual NIH Body Weight Planner. It does not predict fat, muscle or an exact plateau date. Scenario for adults, excluding pregnancy and breastfeeding. Baseline intake is assumed to maintain weight and the reduction to be sustained; water, medicines, illness and adherence are not modelled. This does not prescribe a calorie deficit.
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How it is calculated
W(t)=W0−D/22×(1−exp(−22×t/9100)); t is days, D is intake reduction in kcal/day. Average parameters: ρ=9100 kcal/kg, ε=22 kcal/(kg·day). Linear comparison: loss D×t/7700.
Formula
W(t)=W0−D/22×(1−exp(−22×t/9100)); t is days, D is intake reduction in kcal/day. Average parameters: ρ=9100 kcal/kg, ε=22 kcal/(kg·day). Linear comparison: loss D×t/7700.
Limits of the method
This is the linearized two-parameter Hall–Chow model (2011), not the full individual NIH Body Weight Planner. It does not predict fat, muscle or an exact plateau date. Scenario for adults, excluding pregnancy and breastfeeding. Baseline intake is assumed to maintain weight and the reduction to be sustained; water, medicines, illness and adherence are not modelled. This does not prescribe a calorie deficit.
Sources of the method
This calculation is for reference only and is not medical advice, a diagnosis or a prescription. If you have a medical condition, are pregnant, take medication or have any doubts, discuss the result with a physician or a qualified nutrition professional.
How to use the calculation
Enter the starting values
Use actual values and the appropriate units.
Adjust the parameters
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Read the result
Consider the model limitations; a calculation is not a measurement.
Frequently asked questions
What does the calculation show?
A simplified model with average parameters illustrates weight change after a sustained reduction in baseline energy intake, with unchanged activity.
What limitations apply?
This is the linearized two-parameter Hall–Chow model (2011), not the full individual NIH Body Weight Planner. It does not predict fat, muscle or an exact plateau date. Scenario for adults, excluding pregnancy and breastfeeding. Baseline intake is assumed to maintain weight and the reduction to be sustained; water, medicines, illness and adherence are not modelled. This does not prescribe a calorie deficit.
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What next
Formula breakdowns, biomarker reference ranges and nutrition articles with cited sources are in the NutriFit knowledge base.
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